Financial Street (000402) Annual Report Review: Restarting New Growth to Enjoy the Possibility of Asset Securitization
The core point of view is to achieve revenue of 221 in 2018.100 million, at least -13.4%; net profit attributable to mother 32.700 million, previously +8.7%; net profit after deduction is 29.800 million, previously +69.8%.A cash dividend of 3 yuan is planned for every 10 shares, and the overall performance is in line with expectations.In 2018, the company increased the layout of the core metropolitan area. The recovery of the first- and second-line fundamentals improved the sales flexibility. The scale of business self-sustainment and the optimization of the system benefited from the increase in REITs.Forecast EPS 1 for 2019-2021.22, 1.35, 1.49 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. The reasons for the uneven performance of the growth rate of the carry-over, and the potential mismatch of costs during the period to release potential profit margins The reasons for the company’s performance growth indicators are: (1) Focus on first- and second-tier cities with strict restrictions on layout, and 2017 sales may cause short-term carryoverInsufficient resources; (2) In 2018, sales resumed during the period of high growth and intensified cost mismatch. The sales and management expense ratio increased by 0.9pct; (3) The interest rate of equity merger and acquisition loans and operating property mortgage loans cannot be capitalized, and the financial expense ratio increases by +2.8 points.(4) The decline in the overall market performance of commercial real estate drove the fair value change income to -98.9%.Initially, the gross profit margin of the development business in 2018 is +20.4 points to 45.8%, the project’s profit quality is relatively high, and the cost of the period plus the hope to further release potential profit space. Sales have grown against the trend, and the value layout has both quality and turnover advantages. The key first- and second-tier cities in 2018 are still facing severe market conditions. The company has strengthened sales and promoted value marketing to achieve sales of approximately 30.7 billion (commercial real estate 5.9 billion + residential real estate 248Billion), previously + 30%, a record high.In 2018, the newly-added equity construction area was 3.56 million square meters, which was +18 in ten years.6%.The company continued to cultivate the five major urban agglomerations, and moderately subsided the satellite city of the traffic circle for one hour. The value distribution has both quality and turnover advantages, and the diversified financing channels are unblocked, providing a resource base for high-growth sales.At the end of 2018, the company can carry forward the resource planning area of 15.33 million square meters, corresponding to a value of about 450 billion yuan. New construction in 2019 is expected to be + 5% over the same period, and equity land investment is expected to be +25.At 7%, the first- and second-tier structural recovery has ample value, and we expect that sales growth in 2019 is expected to remain above 20%. The public real estate investment trust funds are gradually approaching, and the big asset management business is speeding up. The company is holding properties 118 in the core areas of Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other central cities.20,000 Ping, 2018 income ten years + 11% to 25.100 million profit before interest and taxes for ten years + 9% to 12.900 million, the scale of income and profits reached a record high.In the years since 2018, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Exchange have actively promoted the pilot scheme for public offering of REITs, and the SSE has recently encouraged institutions to prepare to report public offering of REITs.The acceleration of the policy budget aims to further improve the real estate investment trust fund and create convenience for the revitalization and revaluation of commercial assets. The company’s 杭州夜网论坛 large asset management business welcomes opportunities for system optimization and replication expansion. Developed a self-sustaining two-wheel drive, maintained a “buy” rating company 2018, increased the layout of the core metropolitan area, the value of goods has both scale, quality and turnover advantages, the recovery of first- and second-line fundamentals has improved the sales flexibility space, and achieved commercial self-sustained scale and systemOptimization, deep benefit REITs speed up, scarce value is facing revaluation.We forecast company EPS 1 for 2019-2021.22, 1.35, 1.49 yuan, with reference to comparable companies’ average P / E ratio of 7 in 2019.4 times, considering the company’s sales growth expectations, given to the company in August 2019.4-9.4x PE estimate with a target price of 10.25-11.47 yuan (previous 杭州桑拿 value was 7.22-8.33 yuan), maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: The reduction policy of first- and second-tier attraction cities is becoming severe; the occupancy rate and rent level of newly-added self-owned properties may not be as good as existing properties; the income from changes in fair value of investment real estate may be less than expected.