Wuliangye (000858): Both volume and price increase, high quality, second-time entrepreneurial improvement, and continuous cashing
The event company released the third quarter report of 2019. The company achieved operating income of 371 from January to September.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
8%, net profit attributable to mother is 125.
430,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
1%, net profit after deduction is 126.
0.6 million yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
One single Q3 realized operating income of 99.
51 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.
1%, net profit of return to mother 32.
08 million yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.
6%, net profit after deduction is 32.
120,000 yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.
Q3 profit growth accelerated slightly.
A brief comment on the steady growth of income, the high increase in pre-collection, and the medium- and long-term trend are good.
(1) Volume and price go up.
The company achieved revenue of 371 from January to September.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
8%, the first three quarters maintained stable and high growth (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 increased by 26 respectively.
6% / 27.
1% / 27.
1%), the core products Pu five continued to increase volume and price trend, which is expected to contribute about 13% of the ton price (the eighth-generation ex-factory price of 889 relative to the seventh-generation 789 increase), sales growth contribution is estimated to be close to 20%.
By the end of the third quarter, the company is expected to complete the scheduled repayment task. The shipment of the seventh-generation Wuliangye is about 95%, and the shipment of the eighth-generation is more than 80%.
Channel analysis feedback, the current inventory is generally not high, significantly higher than the same period last year, the seventh generation approval price is about 950 yuan, the eighth generation is about 920-930 yuan, dealers achieve price sales, channel profit is significantly better than last year, confidence has been significantly improved, Benign sales.
(2) High advances.
Advance payment 68 at the end of September.
650,000 yuan, an increase of 15 from the end of June.
11 trillion, an increase of 34 over the same period last year.
The total revenue + advance receipts mobile total increased from January to September 34.
1% (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 increase by 4 respectively.
7% / 46.
8% / 95.
The rapid growth of advance receipts is estimated to have smoothed out a large number of reformed channels since this year. The general price and terminal transaction prices have risen rapidly, channel profits have increased, confidence has increased significantly, product sales have entered a virtuous cycle, and dealers have completed a gradual returnTask.
High advance receipts ensure that the company’s cistern is relatively full, ensuring overall steady growth.
(3) The trend of the general five products is improving.Multi-channel surveys show that the current P5 product channel profit is 30 yuan per bottle?
Above 40 yuan, the solution to the problem of inversion is a significant improvement over the same period last year.
We believe that the company’s new products have been successfully switched. In the future, under the background of steady growth in demand for high-end liquor, the company’s general sales volume will maintain 10% growth. The company’s potential is expected to continue to be released. Other products such as series of wines will be adjusted through organizational structure, streamlined products and channelsAfter the adjustment period, the net profit margin of the expected incremental contribution continues to increase steadily, resulting in a decrease in tax proportion + decrease in management expenses.
The company’s gross profit margin increased gradually from January to September.
3pct to 73.
8% (Q1 / Q2 / Q3 change +2 respectively.
6pct / -2.
0pct / -1.
4pct). The decrease in gross profit margin in the single quarter is expected to be mainly due to the increase in the proportion of non-alcohol industry and the increase in front-line labor costs.
The proportion of sales tax to income decreased significantly, from January to September, it was 13.
9% a year -1.
2pct, where Q3 exceeds -4.
1pct, is expected to be affected by changes in tax rates.
The sales expense ratio gradually increased to zero in the first three quarters.
4 points to 10.
9%, of which single Q3 increased by 2.
2pct is more obvious, it is estimated that it is caused by the increase of expenses; the management expense ratio has decreased by 0 in the first three quarters.
9 points to 5.
0%, single Q3 continues to fall rapidly by 1.
5pct, it is estimated that it is mainly sales volume, and the rate will decrease passively after income 南京夜网 increases.
During the first three quarters of the period, the rate of increase decreased by 0.
6pct (Q2 rate dropped significantly), of which single Q3 increased slightly by 0.
The single Q3 net profit margin was driven by the strong decline in the tax rate, offsetting the decline in gross profit margin and the slight upward movement of the expense ratio during the period, achieving 1.
8 points to 32.
2%, faster than the first half (Q1 / Q2 increased by 1.
Cash flow performance was strong, and sales closed up.
The company achieved net operating cash flow of 161 in the first three quarters.
91 trillion, of which inflow item 436.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 58 in ten years.
6%, exceeding item 274.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
The strong growth of inflows was mainly due to the rapid growth in sales receipts (an increase of 60 between January and September).
1% to 423.
The goal of long-term growth is unhindered, the channel has low inventory, and the sales are healthy.
Since 2017, the company has started “second venture” to carry out all-round reform of products, brands, channels, and organizations. The reform has accelerated this year.
At present, the reform has achieved good results, which are as follows: (1) the trend of rising volume and price of core products has been formed, and the batch price has stabilized at more than 900 yuan in the case of 5,000 tons in Q3, and channel profits have increased significantly;The fulcrum products have been further enriched, and the product system framework has been formed.
Against the background of steady growth in demand for high-end liquors, the company’s core products and series of liquor sectors have promoted steady growth in performance and are highly certain.
Earnings Forecast and Investment Suggestions Increase Earnings Forecast
The revenue in 2021 will be 505.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.
2%; net profit is 179.
90,000 yuan, an increase of 33 in ten years.
6%; corresponding EPS is 4.
The company’s latest bid is 130.
95 yuan, corresponding to 2019?
2021 dynamic PE is 28.
The target price is 166 yuan, corresponding to about 29 in 2020 dynamic PE.
Risk reminder: The price of high-end wine gradually fluctuates, and the reform progress is less than expected.